The 128 Team Playoff, Day 18: Penn State vs. UNLV

by CJ Olson

Photo credit: Mark Selders/Penn State athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

128 bracket

Match 19

(3) Penn State vs. (14) UNLV

What an exciting game this was. Some say you throw to score, but run to win, and that was almost the case in this game.

UNLV running back Charles Williams ran for 227 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries. Penn State leading rusher Noah Cain ran for just 16 yards on eight carries.

Quarterback Sean Clifford stepped up for the Nittany Lions, throwing for 437 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception on 25-for-40 passing.

Most impressively, wide receiver Parker Washington had nine receptions, 197 yards, and a touchdown — an MVP performance for Penn State.

UNLV quarterback Cameron Friel did pretty well, throwing for 221 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, but it was not enough.

Despite its best efforts, UNLV falls to Penn State, 31-27.

After simulating 100 times, UNLV clearly experienced quite a bit of luck. Penn State won 92 of the 100 simulations by an average margin of 33.4-10.5.

Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (6) Louisiana vs. (11) East Carolina

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (3) Ole Miss vs. (14) Georgia Southern

Updated Bracket

IMG 0209

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 10/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 9/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 10/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 9/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)

Mountain West: 10/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 12/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)

Sun Belt: 7/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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